China Merchants Shekou (001979) December 2019 Sales Data Comments: Sales exceeded plan to complete land acquisition and maintain steady growth
On January 9, China Merchants Shekou announced the company’s sales data for December, and the company achieved a contract amount of 234 in December.
3 ‰, +7 for ten years.
6%; Achieved contracted area of 156.
100,000 square meters, +34 a year.
Opinion: December sales of 23.4 billion, + 8% per year, 220.5 billion per year, ten years + 29武汉夜网论坛%, completion of the plan 110% December company sales amount of 234.
300 million, +30.
5%, +7 per night.
6%; sales area 156.
0 million flats, +65.
6%, +34 throughout the year.
8%, which is higher than the high-frequency tracking of 45 cities in December.
3%; average selling price of 15,019 yuan / flat, -21 ring.
2%, compared to 18-27.
The company’s total sales amount in 2019 was 2,204.
700 million, +29 a year.
3%, -3 from last month.
2pct; sales area 1,169.
40,000 square meters, +41 for ten years.
4%, up from -1 last month.
The cumulative average selling price is RMB 18,853 / flat, which is earlier than 8 years-8.
6pct; the company’s sales in 19 years continued to increase rapidly and completed the initial plan of 110% of this 200 billion yuan. Considering the company’s land resource advantages, the project layout is mainly in first- and second-tier cities, and the current first- and second-tier markets are relatively stable.In the next 20 years, sales are expected to continue to increase rapidly.
The land acquisition in December was 10.6 billion, previously + 112%, and the previous land acquisition / about 45%, continued to maintain a steady increase. In December, the company acquired 8 new projects in 7 cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou and Auckland, New Zealand, Add up to 94 in total.
50,000 square meters, ten years -38.
7 %%, corresponding to the land price of 106.
0 billion, previously +112.
4%; the proportion of land area rights is 52.
1%, up from -9 last month.
1pctpct; floor price of 11,218 yuan / square meter, +246 for ten years.
4%, the significant increase in the average price of land was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the company’s December first-tier and key second-tier cities significantly increased their efforts to acquire land.
Land acquisition / share of this type is 45.
2%, -42 from last month.
In 2019, the company acquired a total of 79 new plots, corresponding to an increase of 1,392 planned areas.
70,000 square meters, ten years +7.
2%; total land price is 1,000.200 million, ten years +6.
1%, earlier than 18-2.
1pct; take 45% of the land.
4%, earlier 18-9.
8pct; the average floor price is 7,182 yuan / square meter, the average floor price in the earlier 18 years is -0.
8%, taking land expansion and attaching importance to cost control.
Investment suggestion: The sales exceeding the plan are completed, the land acquisition keeps a steady increase, and the “strong push” rating is maintained. Merchants Shekou actively changed in multiple dimensions after the reorganization, management reforms, improved turnover, and accelerated integration.The Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao Greater Bay Area resource reserve has a very high gold content; only “marketization + non-marketization” has a strong land acquisition advantage.
As the company’s core target, the asset value will further increase.
In addition, the company’s Qianhai land consolidation has entered the final stage, and the development of the Qianhai project is accelerating, which is expected to improve the income statement and balance sheet.
In addition, China Merchants Accumulation and China Merchants Commercial Housing Trust have completed their listings in succession, which is expected to increase the company’s forecast.
We maintain our forecast for the company’s profit in 19-21.
26 yuan, the current price corresponding to 19-20 PE is 8.
3 times, compared to previous NAV35.
20 yuan discount 44%, we maintain a target price of 26.
4 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.
Risk warning: the real estate market adjustment policy tightens more than expected and the industry funds tighten more than expected.