China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (600195): Outbreak continues to weigh on results
1Q3 returns to mother’s net profit for ten years-19.
58%, the performance is in line with the expected 1?
3Q19 performance: company 1?
3Q19 revenue 29.
55 ppm, at least -7.
47%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
720,000 yuan, at least -19.
58%, performance in line with our and market expectations.
Revenue in the third quarter of 1911.
19 ‰, at least -13.
69%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
100,000 yuan, at least -24.
1) Gross margin is basically stable: 1?
3Q19 comprehensive gross profit margin fell -0.
3ppt to 27.
4%, of which 3Q19 gross margin was higher than flat to 26.
However, in light of industry trends, we judge that the gross profit margin of the company’s veterinary biological products business will continue to be under pressure this year; 2) The cost pressure during the period will increase: 1?
The cost interval during 3Q19 is +1.
7ppt to 21.
0%, of which the sales expense rate growth rate +0.
6ppt, management and R & D expense rate +1 per year.
9ppt, but because the company repaid 1.2 billion corporate bonds in February this year, interest expenses decreased.
The 3Q19 financial expense ratio was reset to -0.
3) Due to the impact of the epidemic, the company expects that the net profit for this year may decrease.
The development trend performance is at the turning point, and the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine is still the development focus: the epidemic situation has caused the production of live pig breeding, and the sales of the animal protection industry have been under pressure this year.
However, considering the post-cyclical nature of the animal protection industry, we believe that the company’s performance is at an inflection point.
The destination is because the large-scale breeding enterprises in 2H19 began to increase sow supplementation, and the volume of slaughter is expected to increase next year, which will lead to a recovery in demand for vaccines; and due to the rise in pig prices and the rise in industry profitability, vaccine sales will also improve marginally.
From the product line perspective, the company’s recent foot-and-mouth disease O-a bivalent 3B protein epitope-deleted inactivated vaccine has been approved for the second class of new veterinary drugs, and its progress is in line with previous market expectations.
The vaccine is for pigs and can distinguish between vaccine immunity and natural immunity. It has a relative competitive advantage. We expect the product to be sold in autumn prevention and sold to the recruiting seedling market first.
In addition, the company’s foot-and-mouth disease O-A-Asian type I trivalent vaccine has also obtained export qualifications and is expected to increase overseas revenue in the future.
Anticipation of African swine fever vaccine, increasing company investment sentiment: The market has paid more attention to African 深圳桑拿网 swine fever vaccine, and vaccine development has made some progress. Although there is no official timetable for vaccine launch, the investment sentiment of the animal protection industry is graduallyPromotion.
The company is a veteran animal vaccine production state-owned enterprise. In the short term, it is expected to improve and benefit from the improvement of mood. In the long term, after the launch of the African swine fever vaccine, the company will have the opportunity to tap new profit growth points from it.
Earnings forecast and forecast reached 39/33 times P / E ratio of 19/20. Taking into account the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on the company’s vaccine, feed, and veterinary medicine sectors, we lowered our 19/20 return to mother’s net profit forecast22.
2% / 17.
0% to 3.
1.5 武汉夜网论坛 billion.
However, taking into account the company’s fundamentals, there is room for improvement, and the African swine fever vaccine is expected to enhance the company’s investment sentiment. We maintain a target price of 19 yuan, which corresponds to a price / earnings ratio of 45/39 times in 19/20, + 17%.
Maintain Outperform rating.
Risk Epidemics and policy risks; Company reforms and new product promotion are less than expected risks.