Hualan Biological (002007): Slightly lower performance is expected to look forward to the volume of tetravalent influenza vaccine in the second half of the year

Hualan Biological (002007): Slightly lower performance is expected to look forward to the volume of tetravalent influenza vaccine in the second half of the year

Report Summary: Events: On August 29, the company released its 2019 Interim Report, realizing operating 南京夜网 income, net profit attributable to mothers, and net profit attributable to mothers after deduction of 14, respectively.

03 billion, 5.

07 billion, 4.

62 ppm, with a growth rate of 16 each year.

77%, 11.

94%, 14.

06%.

  The overall performance was slightly lower than expected, and vaccination dragged down the growth rate.

19H1 overall income 14.

0 million yuan (+16.

8%); the vaccine was 11.97 million yuan (-76.

3%); blood products 13.

80,000 yuan (+20.

8%), of which albumin 5.

100 million (+ 8%), Jing Cing 4.

700 million (+ 74%) other blood products 4.

0 million yuan (basically the same).

1) The income of 19H1 vaccine basically comes from the 10 issued in 19Q1 batches produced last year.

50,000 quadrivalent influenza vaccines, hepatitis B, which contributed to the income in the same period 成都桑拿网 last year, are no longer sold, and the decline in vaccine growth has dragged down overall revenue growth.

2) The steady growth of 19H1 blood products was mainly driven by the high growth of static propionate. The final digestive inventory base of static propionate decreased, and the number of 19H1 batches issued increased rapidly (+ 40%), which was higher than the industry growth rate (-9%).

3) The performance growth rate of 19H1 is lower than the growth rate of revenue, which is mainly affected by the replacement of associates and the reduction of government subsidies, etc. 4) The sales rate, management rate, and financial rate have little change. The operating cash flow period is +41.

47%, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of profit, and the repayment situation is good.

  The industry with normal performance in batches has continued to grow steadily: The blood product industry has gradually picked up since the second half of 2018. The company is the industry leader. The performance of batches in issuance was normal from January to July of 19, which has a strong certainty of continued stable growth.

On January 7, 19, the company’s albumin and static propion was issued leading growth in the industry, of which albumin doping + 18%, the industry spans -4.

3%, static propylene glycol + 50%, industry ten years -4.

4%; the major varieties have a clear advantage in batch approval, of which the proportion of albumin in domestic varieties has remained stable at 13%, the percentage of static propylene has increased significantly, the percentage of factor VIII has continued to increase, and the proportion of prothrombin has continued to increase.40% shrinkage).

  The quadrivalent vaccine provides flexibility in performance, and the development of new monoclonal antibody development: The quadrivalent influenza vaccine approved by the company in June 18 has the highest current titer, has obvious clinical advantages, and can provide great performance flexibility.

About 18 million were issued in 18 years, and the performance boost was obvious. In 19Q1, the company has started manual vaccine production. Currently, it has issued about 1.2 million in batches, which is expected to reach about 8 million.

  In addition, the company is actively deploying the field of monoclonal antibodies. Currently, a total of 7 monoclonal antibodies have obtained clinical approval, of which adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and bevacizumab are undergoing phase III clinical studies as planned, becoming the company.New long-term performance growth points.

  Company profit forecast and investment rating: We are optimistic about the company as a leader in blood products. As the industry continues to grow steadily, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the second half of the year will provide performance flexibility, and monoclonal antibodies will provide long-term performance growth points.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2021 will be 13 respectively.

600 million, 16.

3 ppm and 19.

0 million yuan, the corresponding growth rate is 18.

5%, 18.

3%, 16.

5%, corresponding to PE of 34X, 28X and 24X, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  Risk reminders: 1. Risk of fluctuations in blood product prices; 2. Risk of pulp extraction at pulping stations not reaching the expected risk; 3. Insufficient amount of tetravalent influenza vaccine;