Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021) Third Quarterly Report Review: Capacity Expansion Accelerates Cost Growth

Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021) Third Quarterly Report Review: Capacity Expansion Accelerates Cost Growth

Event: In the first three quarters of 2019, the company realized revenue and net profit attributable to its mother 115.

600 million and 17.

200 million yuan, an increase of 13 respectively.

6% and 21.

7%, basic income 1.

87 yuan.

Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue and net profit attributable to mothers44.

200 million and 8.

600 million yuan, respectively increased by 14.

8% and 26.

1%, basically in line with expectations.

  The launch of capacity has accelerated, and the load factor continues to lead the industry: from January to September 2019, the company’s ASK and RPK increased by 10 respectively.

7% and 13.

7%; average load factor 91.

8%, up 2 every year.

4 copies, continue to lead the industry.

In the third quarter, ASK increased by 13 each year.

3%, of which 13 are domestic / international / regional.

8% / 12.

1% / 16.

0%, capacity takeoff has accelerated; the average load factor is 91.

9%, up 2 every year.

4 totals, of which international 90.

3%, a new high in the same period in the past 4 years, while the regional line was restricted by Taiwan orders and the Hong Kong incident.

0 fines to 85.

7%.

  In the third quarter, revenue was slightly under pressure, and the increase in costs: Due to the improvement of the industry’s prosperity in the third quarter, the unit income level was slightly under pressure, but it was still better than the industry average.

Benefiting from the drop in oil prices, the halving of civil aviation funds and the suspension of charging standards for 北京夜生活网 aircraft takeoffs and landings, the cost increase rate in the third quarter replaced 10.

2% (the same period in the second quarter increased by 12.

3%), leading to an increase in gross profit margin by 3.

1 average.

The first three quarters of 19 subsidy income6.

600 million, down 9 every year.

1%, of which 2 in the third quarter.

400 million, basically the same as last year.

  In the winter and spring of 19, the growth rate hit a record high.

At present, the company operates a total of 88 aircrafts. In the fourth quarter, 7 aircrafts were introduced, and capacity deployment continued to accelerate.

In the winter and spring season of 19, the company plans to increase flight time by 20.9%, a new high of nearly 4 years, of which domestic +11.

2%, the highest among listed airlines, international and regional +45.

1%, mainly increase investment in high-yield Japan and South Korea routes.

  Earnings forecast and investment recommendations: We maintain our earnings forecast unchanged, and we expect preliminary basic earnings for 2019/20/212.

04/2.

47/2.

93 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +24.

3% / 21.

2% / 18.

8%.

As a Tier 1 aviation leader, the company has benefited from the increase in the penetration rate of civil aviation. At the same time, the excellent fine channel management and cost control have the ability to cross the cycle and grow steadily.

We maintain the “overweight” rating.

  Risk warning: Aviation demand, aircraft introduction and subsidy income are less than expected, and sharp changes in oil prices.