Shanghai Meilin (600073) Performance Review: Steady Growth in 1H19, 2H Focus on Epidemic and Pig Price Fluctuation

Shanghai Meilin (600073) Performance Review: Steady Growth in 1H19, 2H Focus on Epidemic and Pig Price Fluctuation

The 1H19 revenue was better than expected, and the performance was in line with the expected 1H19 results announced by the company: revenue 128.

7 trillion, ten years +9.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

1 ‰, ten years +7.

4%, corresponding profit 0.

33 yuan.

Among them, 2Q19 single quarter income / net profit attributable to mother +14 per year.

6% / + 3.

9%, mainly because the performance of pig breeding and slaughtering business is better, so the income is better than expected, and the performance is in line with expectations.

Development Trend The pig breeding and slaughtering business expanded and improved in 1H19, the profit remained stable, and 2H19 was under pressure.

In 1H19, in the face of factors such as African swine fever and the rapid rise in pig prices, the income and profit of the breeding and slaughtering business remained basically stable.

Among them, the number of pigs slaughtered by the breeding business company has fallen more than the industry, and it has achieved a contrarian growth. The grassroots discovery shows that the company can reproduce sows more than the commercial pigs.Under pressure.

However, the company actively strengthened epidemic prevention and control, and expansion is still expected to increase.

There were a few commercial pigs in the Guangming live pigs market in 1H19 and they started to contribute income. It is expected that the market will be concentrated in the next year.

In the slaughtering business, under the background of inadequate supply of pigs and rapid growth in pig prices, we expect 2H19 to bear pressure on profits.

The beef and mutton business performed well, and 2H is expected to continue.

In 1H19, Lianhao, Silver Fern and Muxian Shenbu performed well, mainly due to the increase in domestic beef and mutton demand.

Among them, Lianhao’s 1H19 income was +19 for ten years.

5%, make full use of its own brand advantages to achieve sales volume and price increase; Silver Fern 1H19 revenue / profit growth + 3% / 80% respectively, the increase in profitability is mainly due to the company’s product sales focus more on the Chinese market (1H19 China’s profit has exceededNorth America ranks first in the overseas market of Silver Fern in New Zealand), and the gross profit margin of products sold in China is higher.

We expect the net profit of Silver Fern for 2019 to be better than 2018.

Guanshengyuan’s revenue and canned business profits are under pressure.

In 1H19, the revenue of Guanshengyuan decreased by -15%. Due to the 深圳桑拿网 decrease in revenue brought by de-trade, the restructuring is related to the scope of the honey business. We expect that the trend will continue in 2H19, and the reason for the increase in profit is that the high-margin milk sugar business passedProduct upgrades and packaging innovations performed well.

The stable growth of canned business in 1H19 was mainly due to the reserve of low-cost raw materials in the early stage, but with the rise in raw material prices in 2H19, the pressure on profit margins may be greater than 1H19.

Earnings forecast and estimated consideration 2H19 Bright hogs are expected to affect short-term profits, as well as swine fever and pig prices, lowering EPS forecasts for 19/2011.

6% / 16.

4% to 0.

38/0.

52 yuan, the current price corresponds to 19/20 24/17 times P / E, and the target 南京夜网 price is reduced by 11.

6% to 11.

0 yuan, maintain outperform industry rating, corresponding to 19/20 29/21 times P / E, the current price has 22% room.

Risks of swine fever and the uncertainty of rising pig prices will affect multiple businesses of the company.