Central Plains Distribution (002448): pressure on gross profit margins to find new growth points

Central Plains Distribution (002448): pressure on gross profit margins to find new growth points

Performance review In 2018, 1Q19 performance was slightly higher than expected. Zhongyuan Internal Distribution announced 2018 and 1Q19 results: 2018 operating income16.

0, +6 per week.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

8 ‰, +0 for one year.


Operating income in the first quarter of 193.

9 trillion, +2 for ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to mother is 49.17 million yuan, one year -0.


4Q18, 1Q19 gross margin precipitation exceeded expectations.

  Development Trends Sino-US trade frictions and increased pressure on the domestic commercial vehicle industry to reduce costs have caused the company’s gross profit margin to increase in 1Q19 and the current asset turnover rate to decline.

The company’s gross profit margin dropped to 31 in 1Q19.

6%, the previous and the previous month decreased by 8 respectively.

3ppt and 5.

8ppt, we believe that the main reasons are: 1) the United States imposed a 10% import tariff on Chinese-made auto parts; 2) the domestic commercial vehicle industry has increased pressure to reduce costs.

In addition, the company’s inventory turnover days in 1Q19 also reached 139 days (longer and an increase of 6 days and 8 days from the previous month), and accounts receivable turnover days reached 93 days (in the past and an increase of 18 and 11 days from the previous month).

The increase in inventory and working capital caused the company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 4Q18 and 1Q19 to drop significantly to 274.

40,000 yuan and 224.

60,000 yuan.

  The steel piston is expected to become a new growth point for the company’s operating income.

The budget investment for the “1.8 million National Six Engine Steel Piston Project at the beginning of the year” is 6.

5.7 billion US dollars in expenditures as of the end of 20182.

1 billion, while the company’s 1Q19 quarterly report is under construction from 2.

53 million fell to zero.

61 million, we think this indicates that the first phase of the steel piston project has been solidified, and is expected to bring about 80 million yuan in operating income this year.

  Multi-point layout, but still lacks lack of competitive growth points.

In addition to the smart flying investment invested by the company’s air force, the company also disclosed 14 subsidiaries within the scope of the consolidated statement in its annual report. The products involved laser engineering, bearings, intelligent equipment, electronic technology and many other fields, most of which were subsidiaries.Both achieved profits, but the volume was relatively small, and the company’s mid- and long-term growth points were still being 南京夜生活网 cultivated and sought.

  Earnings forecast is based on a more conservative outlook for gross profit margin, lowering 2019 earnings forecast9.

8% to 2.

600 million, 2020 profit forecast2.

800 million.

  Estimates and recommendations remain recommended. Based on the sector’s estimation, the center moves upwards, keeping the target price unchanged, corresponding to a 17x 2019 price-earnings ratio, which continues to be 6 compared with the current one.

8% upside.

  Risks Sino-U.S. Trade frictions have gradually reached an agreement, and their export business to the United States has been affected. Supply and demand in the domestic market have continued to deteriorate, and gross margins have remained low. New growth points have been difficult to form.